Local Markets           : South African: Outlook & Market Indicators:

                                 Local markets have recovered well, but the FTSE/JSE is  above its high of 32 000 points, currently 

                                 sitting @ 31 398-75, representing overbought  value. Current Rand strength is currently

                                 hurting exporters, but this is mainly attributable to high interest rates; the MPC  lowered rates

                                 recently, preceded by a  0.5% cut, preceded by previous successive non-adjustments.

                                 Headline Inflation is currently 4.2% ( as at July 2010-YoY), within  the target range of 3-6%.

                                 Rand strength should continue deep into 2010, mainly due to the spin-off effects of the World Soccer

                                Cup being hosted in South Africa- the reason for this is quite simple-more foreign currency will be

                                exchanged for Rands, i.e more Rands will be purchased and more forex sold in exchange for these

                                Rands, however- the Euro's recent slide and economic woes in Euroland doesn't bode well for exports.

                                A weak Euro could mean a weaker Rand, as the Rand usually tracks the Euro-Europe being the main  

                                trading partner/zone. Looming mass strikes by public servants, post the world cup, could undo major

                                economic advances and create inflation.

                                Mass strikes by various unions, has been hurting the economoy recently- fuel shortages has dogged SA.

                                 Economic recovery may be mooted & a 3% growth is expected.

                                An estimated R 46 bln. -minimum-has been spent on stadiums and infrastructure- it could take some

                                time before the checkbook is balanced and it starts paying for itself.

                                Proposed tariff hikes by Eskom, the electricity utility , is creating inflationary fears.

                                Local bonds have had a dismal year and property -both residential & commercial are showing signs

                                of recovery.  Financial shares have had a most spectacular recovery, but have pulled back recently.

                                The South African stock exchange is heavily skewed towards resource stocks which comprise the

                                majority of market capitalization. The South African currency follows this generally and is like the

                                Australian & Canadian Dollar essentially a commodity based currency.

Overseas Markets     : USA & North America: Outlook & Market Indicators:

                                  Although some US stocks have rebounded remarkably and some stocks have made some punters good

                                 money over the short term, the S&P 500 has given US investors the past 10 years a round zero %.

                                 Most disappointing.One can only wonder if the bailouts and infrastructural spend will have the desired

                                 effect in the long run, once the band-aid plaster is removed, in terms of the Fed exiting the TARP

                                 Programme. What is worrying about the US is inflation fears, the level of debt and low interest rates.

                                 Further concerns on a geo political level is the fact that China is the largest holder of US Treasuries,

                                 a so-called safe haven investment- one can only wonder if this is not the next bubble to burst...

                                Please see: http://www.usdebtclock.org Please see:http://www.youtube.comwatch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

                               The U.S.A's debt review is coming up, 2-5 Aug 2011- some speculate a default, others re-structuring.

                               A further worrying fact is that China and Russia are pushing for an alternative worldwide reserve

                                currency- Russia in particular buying Canadian Dollars, which is perceived as a stable currency, given

                                the fact that the Canadian economy is more robust than its southern neighbour and has very little debt

                                Of the G-8 countries, the Canadian economy has contracted the least, YOY, in terms of its GDP.

                                : Europe (Regional)& Country Specific: Outlook & Market Indicators:

                                 Trouble in Euro-land due to the 4 little piggies-PIGS( Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece)-once again debt

                                 levels, but particularly in Greece where public unrest has given voice to dissent and dissatisfaction.

                                 Europe has reluctantly agreed to a  financial assistance package, co-sponsored by Germany & 

                                 France. The natural consequence of all  this uncertainty and nervousness, has led to a weaker Euro.

                                 If Greece is the word, then Spain has the potential to be a paragraph in European economic woes.

                                 In the UK the FTSE100 has also had a good recovery over the last year- roughly 20 % back.

                                 BP has now plugged the hole of the biggest oil spil ever, in the Gulf of Mexico, but now the question

                                 remains if it can do so with its balance sheet ? Only time will tell.

                                : Asia , incl. Australasia (Regional) & Country Specific: Outlook & Market Indicators:

                                  Asian markets have recovered well, especially Hong Kong's Hang Sen and South Korea's Kospi Index.

                                  Japan is still a weak performing market, but on the currency side the Yen showed some signs of

                                 strength recently. With regard to Toyota shares, given the large international call-back of some of its

                                 models, particularly the Prius range over safety concerns-faulty brakes and acceleration pedals, one

                                 can only feel for Toyota shareholders. The latest seem to be faulty engines in some models, Lexus.

                                 Chinese banks have put the brakes on lending recently in order to stem inflation & growth.

                                 Dagong, the Chinese Rating Agency, has interestingly downgraded US Government Debt, which is 

                                 rated lower than US Corporate Debt/Bonds, but also stripping Britain, Germany & France of their AAA

                                 ratings, accusing Anglo-Saxon competitors of ideological bias in favour of the West. Chinese

                                 manufacturing is showing signs of slowing down. Japan has been hammered by a  Tsunami, Radiation                                  Fall-out and earth quakes.

                                 Australia weathered the Global Financial Crisis the best, now beset by severe flooding in Queensland.

                                 Please see: http://globalfloodmap.org/Australia. It is estimated that this event will shave 0.5 % off

                                 annual GBP- 5 Bln. AUD is the estimated cost of repairing damaged infrastructure.

                                : Rest of World: Africa, South America, Russia (BRIC, excl.China):

                                  Earth quakes hitting Chile- a strong 8 on the Richter Scale.

                                  Brazil is also very much a commodity based economy, and has had its own stimulus package recently.

                                  Banking is still virgin territory and an untapped market here. Ethanol production has affected the

                                  sugar price recently.

                                  Russia, although seen as a developing market, has huge potential- not only in terms of its natural

                                  resources, but also in terms of its human capital- a highly educated work force having a taste for

                                  western luxury goods. The Russian economy is less reliant on debt than the west, but at the height of

                                  the financial crisis, had to start delving into its oil reserve fund. High/er oil prices favours the

                                  Russian economy. The Russian Central Bank has cut rates 12 times to stimulate an economic upswing

                                  Who can forget the recent gas-transit stand-off with the Ukraine during the winter

                                  of 2009?  The Ukraine has applied for a $ 6 Bn Dollar loan from the IMF.

                                  Dubai also had its bail-out package from big brother, Abu Dhabi, recently.

                                  India as a financial entity shouldn't be written off-quite possibly the next China. Dr. Mark Faber

                                  regards the Indian Central Bank as one of the most prudent. India is the no.1 consumer/user of gold

 

Market Indicators:

Local (JSE)  As at  Spot % Change








JSE All Share Index 19/7/2011 17:00 32058.68 0.59
ALSI 40 19/7/2011 17:00 28707.36 0.62
Financial 19/7/2011 17:00 21514.10 0.06
JSE Gold 19/7/2011 17:00 2601.70 -0.75
JSE Industrial 25 Index 19/7/2011 17:00 28118.94 0.19
Information Tech 19/7/2011 17:00 23216.08 0.25
Resources 19/7/2011 17:00 29818.80 1.29
Retail 19/7/2011 17:00 42716.08 1.18
Financial and Industrial 30 19/7/2011 17:00 31057.45 0.07
JSE Industrial Index 19/7/2011 17:00 33479.13 0.19
OML 19/7/2011 17:51 1425.00 -0.42
Repo Rate 19/7/2011 23:56 5.50 0.00
JSE S.A. Property Index 19/7/2011 17:00 386.22 0.20
SWIX 19/7/2011 17:00 6718.04 0.50
JSE Financial 15 Index 19/7/2011 17:00 8068.74 -0.01
















































































































































































Offshore As at Spot % Change




Dow Jones Industrial 19/7/2011 23:56 12587.42 1.63
FTSE 100 Index 19/7/2011 17:35 5789.99 0.65
NASDAQ Comp Index 19/7/2011 22:20 2826.52 2.22
Nikkei 225 20/7/2011 07:52 10001.13 1.13
CAC-40 19/7/2011 17:46 3694.95 1.21
S&P 500 Index 19/7/2011 22:20 1326.73 1.63
Xetra Dax Index 19/7/2011 18:06 7192.67 1.19
MSCI Emerging markets (US$) 19/7/2011 23:56 1122.39 -1.16
 
































































CommoditiesAs at Spot
% Change





Brent Crude Oil 20/7/2011 07:46 117.65 0.24
GOLD-R 20/7/2011 08:04 11017.42 0.15
Gold US$/oz 20/7/2011 08:03 1588.60 0.00
Platinum $ 20/7/2011 08:03 1768.50 0.26
 


























 






















Currencies As at Spot % Change
 




$/UK 20/7/2011 08:04 1.61 -0.14
Yen/$ 20/7/2011 08:04 79.06 0.13
R/$ 20/7/2011 08:04 6.94 -0.11
R/Eur 20/7/2011 08:04 9.80 0.02
R/£ 20/7/2011 08:04 11.13 0.05
$/Eur 20/7/2011 08:04 1.41 0.17
R/AUD 20/7/2011 08:02 7.43 -0.07



















































































 

































































































































































 





















































































































































 
















Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.



























































































































































































































































































Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.














Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.




Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.







Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.














Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.






















Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.






















Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.
















Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.




Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.















Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.







Please see Graphs & Illustrations down below.











































































































































































Pleasse see:  http://www.globaleconomiccrisis.com/blog/